Labour market forecast: Employment to pick up in 2025
According to this autumn's short-term labour market forecast, the expected recovery of the employment rate will be delayed by the labour market downturn in the tail-end of 2024.
The labour market forecast uses Statistics Finland's new population projection, which indicates that immigration will rapidly expand the size of the working-age population in the next few years. This will also increase the number of people in employment. According to the labour market forecast, the number of employed people will grow by 14,000 in 2025 and by another 27,000 in 2026.
The forecast suggests that the employment rate of the working-age population (15–64-year-olds) will fall by 1.4 percentage points to 72.2 per cent this year. A slight decline is also expected next year, but the employment rate is forecast to return to 72.2 per cent in 2026.
The unemployment rate is forecast to rise this year by 1.2 percentage points to 8.4 per cent. It is expected to rise again to 8.5 per cent next year but return to 8.4 per cent in 2026.
Pressures on the public sector to save money will offset the positive development in employment in healthcare and social welfare and in public administration. For private services, however, the outlook is brighter. Employment in the construction sector will recover slowly, and an upturn is not expected until the end of 2025.
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Labour market forecast: Employment to pick up in 2025 (tem.fi)