According to the latest labour market forecast, employment growth will strengthen in the coming years

The anticipated improvement in employment and unemployment has been delayed amid a weak economic outlook.

While an upturn in employment is already taking place, the change for the better will be slow. However, the growth in employment will become more visible in the next few years. According to the forecast, the number of employed people is expected to increase by 18,000 in 2027 and by 25,000 in 2028. 

The unemployment rate is estimated to remain high in the short term. As per the forecast, it would hover around 10.2 per cent in 2026. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 9.8 per cent in 2027 and further to 9.3 per cent in 2028.

The decline in long-term unemployment is expected to begin earlier and to be quicker than what was projected in the two previous labour market forecasts. According to the current forecast, the number of long-term unemployed people would rise to around 144,000 people in summer 2026, but would start to fall after that.

Labour market forecast: Long-term unemployment to start declining after summer 2026 (tem.fi)