The peak of unemployment growth is behind us


According to this spring’s short-term labour market forecast, a turn for the better can be expected towards the end of 2024.

The employment rate is expected to decline this year, but the number of employed people will not begin to fall because of strong immigration. Due to the favourable economic trend and immigration, the number of employed persons will grow by 16,000 in 2025, and by another 29,000 in 2026.

The employment rate of the working-age population (15-64-year-olds) will shrink by 0.6 percentage points to 73.0 per cent this year and decrease further by 0.1 percentage points in 2025. However, the employment rate will grow by 0.3 percentage points in 2026 to reach 73.3 per cent.

The unemployment rate is expected to increase by 0.5 percentage points this year. The unemployment rate is projected to hover around 7.7 per cent this year, fall to 7.5 per cent next year and to 7.1 per cent in 2026.

The economic downturn has been most visible in the construction sector, where employment has fallen since the beginning of 2023 and is now at its lowest point in 25 years. According to the labour market forecast, nearly 15,000 more jobs will be lost in the construction sector this year, compared with last year. The situation will begin to improve towards the end of 2025, with the positive trend expected to continue in 2026.

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Labour market forecast: A turn for the better can be expected towards the end of 2024 (